Browsing by Author "Olufunmi Emmanuel FASHINA"

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    Security Threats, Poverty and Economic Growth in West African Countries
    (Lead City University, Ibadan, 2025) Olufunmi Emmanuel FASHINA
    West Africa faces a dual developmental challenge where pervasive poverty, and escalating security threats create a vicious cycle that constrains economic progress. Despite significant natural resource wealth, the region exhibits some of the world's highest poverty rates, exacerbated by increasing incidents of terrorism, organized crime, and communal conflicts. These security challenges not only endanger human lives but also disrupt economic activities, destroy infrastructure, and divert scarce resources from development programs to security expenditures. Meanwhile, existing studies have typically examined poverty and security threats in isolation, neglecting their potential effects on economic growth. This study investigates the interrelationships among poverty, security threats, and economic growth across the sixteen West African countries from 2007 to 2023. It addresses these gaps through rigorous panel data analysis. The study tests for Cross-Sectional Dependence using Pesaran-CD, Pesaran-Scaled LM, and Power Enhanced CDw tests, establish stationarity through both first and secondary generation unit root tests, and verify cointegration relationships using the Westerlund ECM panel cointegration test. This comprehensive methodological approach ensures the robustness of empirical analysis by using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in these relationships across linguistic blocs. The findings demonstrate that poverty constrains economic growth in Lusophone countries while showing a mild positive association in Francophone nations, reflecting patterns of “jobless growth.” Security threats exhibit significant negative impacts on economic growth in both Lusophone and Anglophone blocs, yet relate with improved economic growth in Francophone countries. The study identifies a counterintuitive “reporting paradox” where higher poverty relates with reduced recorded security threats, suggesting significant underreporting in impoverished areas. Most notably, the analysis finds no interactive effects between poverty and security threats on economic growth, indicating these factors operate through distinct channels rather than reinforcing mechanisms. These results highlight the need for differentiated policy approaches that account for substantial variations across sub-regional contexts. Security interventions must be bloc-specific to address divergent security-growth relationships across West Africa. In Anglophone and Lusophone countries, policies should prioritize conflict prevention and protection of economic assets where security threats severely constrain growth. Conversely, Francophone nations require strategies that manage economic opportunities emerging alongside insecurity while addressing root conflict causes. Simultaneously, poverty reduction approaches must vary, with Lusophone countries needing direct poverty alleviation measures and Francophone nations requiring inclusive growth strategies to combat jobless growth patterns. Keywords: Poverty, Security Threats, Economic Growth, West Africa, Panel Cointegration. Word Count: 383