Oil Price and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria
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2022-12
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Lead City University
Abstract
Crude oil is one of the most important sources of energy in the world and it has a vital impact on the development in economy and the growth of these various economies. Crude oil price has witnessed intricate shocks, and this implies that for the performance of most of the macroeconomic variables, it poses many challenges, both monetary and fiscal) for making policies. Oil price fluctuations have macroeconomic outcomes in both oil importing and exporting nations, given that crude oil which is an integral source of income and contributes significantly to the economic wealth of countries. The scope of this study covers the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to year 2020. This is so because this period witnessed different episodes of oil price changes. Time series data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the world development index (WDI). The Neoclassical growth theory, which posits that the economic growth stability hinges on three major factors, which are the availability of Capital, availability of Labour and the availability and State of Technology was used. In analyzing the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model framework is employed. The ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal, irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I (1) or I (0), and also works well with small samples.
Keywords: Crude Oil, Potential Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Neoclassical growth theory
Word count: 250 words
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Kate Turabian