Dept of Economics

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    Financial Sector Development and Health Outcomes in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) SAMAILA, Ibrahim
    One major problem arising from the relationship of financial sector development and health outcomes in the Nigerian economy is the lack of comprehensive understanding of how specific financial instruments and institutions influence various health indicators like life expectancy and child mortality.Existing studies often focus on aggregate measures, and there is a need for more in-depth investigations that consider the diverse pathways through which financial sector dynamics such as money, bank and stock markets influence specific health outcomes.This study investigates the effects of money market instruments (monetary policy rate, 12-month deposit rate and treasury bill rate), bank sector (liquidity ratio, loan to deposit ratio and domestic credit), and stock market indices (market capitalization, market stock traded and all share index) on health outcome in Nigeria over the period 1985-2022. Using the ARDL bound testing approach, monetary policy rate and 12-month deposit rate have negative impact on short-run life expectancy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, life expectancy reacted positively to monetary policy rate but negatively affected by treasury bill rate in the long run. Treasury bill rate and 12-month deposit rate positively relate with child mortality rate in the short run. It discovers that liquidity ratio positively influences life expectancy both in the short and long run. The study found that under-5 mortality is positively and significantly influenced by bank sector development measures in the short run. Only liquidity ratio and domestic credit are negatively significant on long-run child mortality. In addition, total stocks transaction value influences life expectancy positively in the short run but negatively in the long run. Also, all share index directly influence life expectancy both in the short and long run. Stock market capitalization negatively influence child mortality both in the short and long run. However, total stock transaction value positively relates to under-5 mortality in the short and long run. All share index has a direct influence on child mortality rate in the short run. There is a need for the policymakers and government agencies to carefully consider the potential health implications when implementing measures that increase interest rates. Also, they should balance the long-term economic goals with the potential health consequences. Keywords: Money market, banking sector, stock market, life expectancy, child mortality. Word Count: 288
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    Stock Market Development and Agricultural Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Adewale Kazeem OSHONIYI
    Despite the growing body of research exploring the relationship between stock market development and agricultural performance, a noticeable gap persists in the literature regarding the distinction of specific stock market measures on various dimensions of agriculture, such as outputs, employment, and exports. This study investigates the effects of stock market measures (stock market capitalization, total stock transaction value, and all share index) on agricultural performance in Nigeria over the period 1985-2022. Using the ARDL bound testing approach, stock market capitalization and all share index positively influence short-run agricultural output growth. However, total stock transaction value has a negative and significant impact on agricultural output growth in the short run. The long run impact of stock market development on agricultural output growth is not significant at 5% level. In addition, total stock transaction negatively and significantly impacted on employment in agricultural sector at 5%. In the long run, the study discovered that all share index adversely and significantly impact agricultural employment at the conventional level. It implies that stock market development negatively impact agricultural employment both in the short and long run. Furthermore, it discovered that stock market development have no significant impact on agricultural export in the short run. However, the stock market development mainly through total stock transaction value positively and significantly impact agricultural exports in the long run. There is a need to consider measures to strike a harmonious balance between financial market development and the support of key economic drivers, fostering a comprehensive and sustainable economic landscape. Government should carefully consider the trade-offs between promoting financial market development and sustaining employment in vital sectors like agriculture, ensuring a balanced economic approach. Keywords: Money market, bank sector, stock market, Market Development, Agricultural Performance, Nigeria Word Count: 274.
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    Population Growth and Food Production in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Ifetolase Dorcas OJENIYI
    This study explored the interrelationships between population growth and food production in Nigeria. The objectives were to analyze the asymmetric causal relationship between population growth and food production, examine the asymmetric effect of population growth on food production and access the response of food production to shocks in population growth in Nigeria. These were estimated using secondary time series data from 1981 to 2021 which was subjected to statistical estimations. The study adopted the asymmetry causality test based on Toda Yamamoto method, nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and impulse response function and variance decomposition. The findings reveal that population growth and food production in Nigeria exhibit a significant bi-directional causal relationship. Positive and negative population growth both revealed a one-way causality on food production. The labor force participation rate is also positively correlated with agricultural output, indicating that a larger labor force engaged in agriculture leads to higher productivity. The short-run asymmetric estimates demonstrate that positive population growth has a negative impact on agricultural output, while lagged positive and negative population growth have positive effects. In the long run, deposit money bank credit to agriculture and government expenditure as a percentage of GDP show marginally significant effects on food production. Shocks in population growth, labor force participation rate, government expenditure, deposit money bank credit to agriculture, inflation rate, and exchange rate have varying effects on food production in Nigeria. The study concludes that population growth has a significant impact on food production, both positively and negatively, emphasizing the need for sustainable population management strategies. The labor force participation rate and other macroeconomic indicators also play crucial roles in influencing food production. It was recommended that policymakers should implement strategies that promote agricultural output and maintain stable population growth. Keywords: Population Growth, Food Production, Agricultural Output, Labour Force Participation. Word Count: 287
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    Trade Liberalization and Sectoral Performance in Nigeria.
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Olajide Adewale OGUNNAIKE
    This study examines the relationship between trade liberalization and sectoral performance in Nigeria with special focus on agricultural, manufacturing and service sector. Nigeria, as a developing country, has embarked on trade liberalization measures in recent years to enhance economic growth and improve competitiveness. This study aims to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on various sectors of the Nigerian economy and evaluate their performance. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) model framework was employed. The findings suggest that trade liberalization has had mixed effects on different sectors in Nigeria. While some sectors have significant and positive effect, others have faced challenges adapting to the new trading environment. The agricultural sector, for example, has increased in trade, resulting in improved performance indicators. In contrast, the manufacturing sector has encountered difficulties due to competition from cheaper imported goods, leading to a negative effect on labour. In addition, the exchange rate affects service sector performance negatively. For the agricultural sector, results showed reveals that in the long run, trade liberalization has a significant and positive effect. For the effect of trade liberalization on manufacturing sector performance in Nigeria, the short run analysis reveals that trade openness affect manufacturing sector performance. In the long run, trade openness also has a significant and negative relationship with manufacturing sector performance. In analyzing the effect of trade liberalization on the service sector performance, trade openness has no significant effect on service sector performance in both the short and long run periods. The study recommends that the government adopt an outward-looking trade strategy that promotes the exportation of domestically produced agricultural products, thus fostering an increase in agricultural output. Keywords: Trade Liberalization, Agricultural sector, Manufacturing sector, Service sector, Human Capital. Word Count: 281
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    Volatility in Fuel Price and Exchange Rate on Food Prices in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Bethel Ibukunolu LAMINA
    This thesis investigates the relationships influencing food prices in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022, considering the interplay of fuel prices, exchange rates, Prices of other goods, Government legislation, Weather conditions, and Consumer income. The analysis reveals crucial insights into both long-term and short-term dynamics affecting food prices. The study establishes a positive long-term impact of exchange rates on food prices, aligning with Nigeria's import-dependent nature. Higher exchange rates contribute to increased food prices due to elevated import costs. A positive and significant relationship is identified between the prices of other goods and food prices. Contrary to assumptions, the study uncovers a negative long-term impact of fuel prices on food prices, challenging conventional beliefs. The relationship between fuel prices and food prices is influenced by various factors, demonstrating the complexity of this association. Increased government spending on agriculture is found to have a negative long-term impact on food prices, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the relationship between government expenditures and food prices. Adverse weather conditions are shown to negatively impact food prices in the long term, underscoring the complexity of the relationship between weather and food prices. The study identifies both positive and negative short-term effects on food prices, indicating responsiveness to various factors. The presence of a highly significant Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) suggests strong short-term corrections to maintain long￾term equilibrium. The multifaceted nature of the relationships among exchange rates, prices of other goods, fuel prices, government legislation, weather conditions, and consumer income underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding when analyzing food price dynamics in Nigeria. Keynotes: Fuel price, exchange rate, food price, volatility
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    Financial Sector Development and Health Outcomes in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Ibrahim SAMAILA
    One major problem arising from the relationship of financial sector development and health outcomes in the Nigerian economy is the lack of comprehensive understanding of how specific financial instruments and institutions influence various health indicators like life expectancy and child mortality. Existing studies often focus on aggregate measures, and there is a need for more in-depth investigations that consider the diverse pathways through which financial sector dynamics such as money, bank and stock markets influence specific health outcomes.This study investigates the effects of money market instruments (monetary policy rate, 12-month deposit rate and treasury bill rate), bank sector (liquidity ratio, loan to deposit ratio and domestic credit), and stock market indices (market capitalization, market stock traded and all share index) on health outcome in Nigeria over the period 1985-2022. Using the ARDL bound testing approach, monetary policy rate and 12-month deposit rate have negative impact on short-run life expectancy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, life expectancy reacted positively to monetary policy rate but negatively affected by treasury bill rate in the long run. Treasury bill rate and 12-month deposit rate positively relate with child mortality rate in the short run.It discovers that liquidity ratio positively influences life expectancy both in the short and long run. The study found that under-5 mortality is positively and significantly influenced by bank sector development measures in the short run. Only liquidity ratio and domestic credit are negatively significant on long-run child mortality.In addition, total stocks transaction value influences life expectancy positively in the short run but negatively in the long run. Also, all share index directly influence life expectancy both in the short and long run. Stock market capitalization negatively influence child mortality both in the short and long run. However, total stock transaction value positively relates to under-5 mortality in the short and long run. All share index has a direct influence on child mortality rate in the short run.There is a need for the policymakers and government agencies to carefully consider the potential health implications when implementing measures that increase interest rates. Also, they should balance the long-term economic goals with the potential health consequences. Keywords: Money market, banking sector, stock market, life expectancy, child mortality. Word Count: 288.
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    Economic Policies and Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Glory Funmilayo AKINNOLA
    The study empirically investigated the link among economic policies and poverty alleviation in Nigeria. A choice of variables such as government expenditure on health, government expenditure on education and tax rate were adopted as fiscal policy tools while monetary policy rate and interest rate were chosen as monetary policy proxy. Exchange rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate and GDP per capita were also incorporated as control variables. The ARDL short- run and long-run models were estimated to investigate the dynamic relationships between poverty rate, and the array of independent variables, fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria from 1980 to 2021. Data used was sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI) and analyzed using the EViews software. The augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test indicated that some of the variables are stationary and others differenced stationary. The result of the ARDL model estimation revealed that government expenditure on health showed a significant positive coefficient, while government expenditure on education reflected otherwise. Tax rate showed a significant negative effect on the poverty rate. Monetary policy rate has relatively small and statistically insignificant coefficients. Inflation rate impacted poverty negatively. The mixed policy estimation result revealed that a mix of (government expenditure on health and monetary policy rate; tax rate and interest rate) indicated a negative significant relationship with poverty level. While combinations of (government expenditure on education and the monetary policy rate; tax rate and the monetary policy), revealed a positive relationship with poverty. Based on the results, poverty increase in Nigeria is still henpecked by monetary policy, because of inflation instability. Fiscal policy has contributed to poverty rate decrease but not effectively as government budget seem to miss the target. Thus, this study recommends proper monitoring of economic policies channelled towards poverty alleviation in Nigeria. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Poverty Alleviation, Nigeria. Word Count: 295
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    Institutional Quality, Globalization, and Income Inequality in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Tolani Akintunde FAKUNLE
    Globalization can exacerbate income inequality, as those who can harness global opportunities benefit more than others. The unequal distribution of benefits from globalization can widen the gap between the rich and poor in Nigeria. Also, weak and ineffective institutions in Nigeria pose a significant challenge to addressing income inequality. Therefore, this research examines the interrelationship among globalization, institutions, and income inequality in Nigeria over the period 1985-2020. It investigates the role of institutions on globalization; the effect of globalization on income inequality; the extent to which institutions influence income inequality; and the moderating role of institutions in globalization-income inequality relations in Nigeria. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimator, the findings showed that institutions do not have significant impact on globalization both in the short- and long-run. The result further indicates that institutions positively impacted income inequality both in the short and long run. Likewise, it showed that globalization have a direct effect on income inequality both in the short and long run. It implies that globalization and weak institutional quality exacerbate income inequality in Nigeria by concentrating economic benefits among a privileged few. In the short run, the study discovered that globalization and institutions have a positive marginal effect on income inequality in Nigeria. Intuitively, inadequate governance, corruption, and lack of regulatory mechanisms allow a disproportionate share of the gains from globalization to accrue to powerful interests, widening the income gap and hindering inclusive economic development. On the policy front, government should prioritize institution-building initiatives, focusing on strengthening governance, reducing corruption, and enhancing regulatory frameworks to ensure that the benefits of globalization are equitably shared across society. Keywords: Redistribution, KOF globalization index, governance, Gini index, Nigeria. Word Count: 260
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    Public Expenditure, Agricultural Productivity, and Income Inequality in ECOWAS
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Abimbola Elizabeth ADETUNJI
    High disparities in the distribution of public expenditure across the agricultural sector in ECOWAS have exacerbated economic inequalities among its residents, as large individuals or groups receive disproportionate attention. Moreover, the effectiveness of public spending in enhancing agricultural productivity has faced severe problems in the region, thereby posing substantial challenges to the goal of reducing income inequality in the ECOWAS region. This study investigates the interactive effects of agriculture productivity and public expenditure on income inequality in ECOWAS from 2000 to 2021. Using the panel ARDL approach, the study found that agriculture productivity and public expenditure positively and significantly influence income in ECOWAS. It implies that increased productivity primarily benefits large-scale commercial farmers or those with access to modern agricultural technologies which therefore exacerbate existing income disparities. Thus, agriculture productivity widen gap between the wealthier agricultural producers and smallholder farmers, contributing to overall income inequality. The positive and significant impact of public expenditure on income inequality in ECOWAS suggests that public spending primarily benefits higher-income groups or is directed toward projects that do not address the needs of the poor, it can contribute to increased income inequality. The negative and insignificant impact of public expenditure and agriculture productivity on income inequality suggests that the joint effect of agriculture productivity and public expenditure does not significantly alter the existing income distribution patterns in ECOWAS. In economic terms, this could imply that despite efforts to enhance productivity in the agricultural sector and increase public spending, the outcomes do not translate into a substantial change in the distribution of income among different segments of the population. Government should increase public expenditures on social programs that directly benefit the poor and vulnerable populations. Investments in education, healthcare, and social safety nets can improve human capital development and reduce income inequality. Keywords: Government spending, agriculture output growth, GINI index, ECOWAS. Word Counts: 296
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    Economic Openness and Growth of Sectoral Output in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Idowu Sulaiman ABDULSALAM
    The study examines the relationship among economic openness, agriculture, industry, finance and service sectors in Nigeria covering the period 1985 to 2019. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Toda and Yamamoto causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration test, impulse response functions and error correction mechanism. The study found that the data for some variables were fixed at level while others were integrated at first differentiation. Findings from the study reveals that causal relationship exist only between service sector and trade openness. Furthermore, the study describes a long-term relationship between economic openness and sectoral output growth in Nigeria. However, there were mixed results in the short run, from the impulse response pictures, it shown that most of the variables fluctuated along the periods. The study therefore recommended that government should diversify Nigeria economy away from oil, provision of sophisticated farm tools and infrastructural facilities, formulation and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies among others. Keywords: Economic Openness, Economic Growth, Sectoral Output, Nigeria
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    Value Added Tax, Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Olakunbi TAIWO-TAIWO
    Every government has the responsibility to provide infrastructure for an enabling environment for its citizens. However there are needs for funds, these funds are mostly derivable from tax of which in the Nigeria context VAT has a potential to increase tax which can lead to economic growth. Therefore this study seeks to examine the contributory effect of value added tax to the level of tax revenue in Nigeria; to investigate the effect of value added tax on economic growth in Nigeria; to determine the extent to which tax revenue affect economic growth in Nigeria; to ascertain the threshold of value added tax as a proportion of tax revenue that can spur economic growth in Nigeria; and to establish the causal link among value added tax, tax revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. This is in a bid to investigate the investigate the relationship among value added tax, tax revenue and economic growth in Nigeria between 2010 and 2021 using quarterly data sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and WDI. The techniques that were employed to achieve the objective of this study were ARDL model and Granger Causality through the VECM approach. The result of the study indicates a negative contributory effect of VAT on tax revenue, a positive and significant effect of tax revenue on economic growth, a negative and insignificant effect of VAT on economic growth, and a causal link among VAT, tax revenue and economic growth. It can therefore be concluded that there is a significant relationship between VAT, tax revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. Hence it is recommended that government should work at increasing the level of VAT in the country to produce positive overall tax revenue as well as the economy; government should also employ means by which tax revenue is increased for economic growth. Keywords: VAT, Tax Revenue, Economic Growth, ARDL and Granger Causality Word Counts: 300
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    Globalization, Environmental Sustainability, and Income Inequality in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Bonuola Victoria OYEKU
    Over the last years, development economists, policymakers and stakeholders have focused on the macroeconomic effects of economic inequality and poor environmental sustainability in the developing economies. Despite globalization and environment degradation being recognized as factors of income inequality, studies on ECOWAS’s globalization, environmental sustainability and inequality are scarce and contradictory due to inappropriateness of carbon emissions and trade openness as indicators of environmental sustainability and globalization respectively. This study investigates the interrelationship among globalization, environmental sustainability, and income inequality in ECOWAS within the periods 1996-2019. The panel data set was sourced from the databank of World Bank and ICRG. The study found that globalization contributed to poor environmental sustainability in the region. It is consistent with the Pollution Haven hypothesis, which contends that globalization harms the environment, particularly in developing countries with lax environmental policies in comparison to developed countries with strict environmental policies. It was further discovered that income inequality is positively influenced by financial globalization but negatively affected by trade openness and KOF globalization index. This implies that the type of foreign direct investment coming into the region further exacerbated the disparity in income distribution. Thus, owing to the region’s inadequate capital stock and abundant labor force, multinationals' capital-intensive projects are unlikely to support many of the labor-intensive industries in terms of job creation and growth sustainability. Furthermore, income inequality is negatively influenced by poor environmental sustainability. It implies that growth inclusiveness and low level of pollutants move in the same direction with income inequality. Thus, environmental sustainability failed to curtail economic inequality. The study confirmed that globalization and environmental sustainability influenced income inequality more in the long-run than in the short-run. It is recommended that the government should enact environmental laws and regulations that abate pollution and carbon-trading activities, as well as to encourage the use of green manufacturing techniques. Keywords: Trade, FDI, KOF globalization index, inequality, Gini coefficient, ECOWAS Word count: 293
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    Healthcare Expenditure, Health Outcomes and Economic Growth in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Funmilola Victoria ONIYIDE
    In spite of the funds allocated into healthcare system, expenditure on health is still the lowest in the world both as per capita and as percentage of GDP, there are still high out-of-pocket costs incurred by the citizens and nation’s still face a number of development challenges, including poor infrastructure, a high mortality rate. The study empirically investigated the link among healthcare expenditures, health outcomes and economic growth in a panel of 15 countries of ECOWAS within the periods, 2000-2020. The study decomposes healthcare expenditures into four components: national, public, private and external; health outcomes into life expectancy, infant mortality, maternal mortality and under-five mortality; while economic growth is measured by gross domestic product per capita. The parameters are estimated using the pooled mean group (PMG) and granger causality estimators. Based on the pooled mean group results, it was discovered that healthcare expenditure is an important predictor of life expectancy. Thus, healthcare expenditure positively and significantly influences life expectancy in ECOWAS. On the contrary, healthcare expenditures have a negative impact on infant mortality. Meanwhile, the effect of healthcare expenditure on maternal mortality rate and under-five mortality rates is statistically significant, albeit has mixed signs. It was further discovered that healthcare expenditure positively and significantly impacted economic growth. As regards the causality test, income per capita has a bi-causal link with national, private and external healthcare expenditure, while a one-way causal link was found from public healthcare expenditure to per capita income. Also, a uni-directional link exists between healthcare expenditures and life expectancy. Equally, there exist a one-way causation from health outcomes to income per capita. The study recommends that government should increase budget allocation into health sectors as presented during Abuja declaration in April 2001, so as to achieve better health outcomes and sustainable economic growth. Keywords: Healthcare Expenditures, Health Outcomes, Pooled Mean Group, Granger Causality, ECOWAS Word Count: 296
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    Institutional Quality, Financial Development and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Oluwatosin Yewande BARUWA
    Over the last decade, policymakers and economists have focused on the macroeconomic effects of financial development and institutional quality. Despite financial development being recognized as a growth stimulant, studies on Nigeria’s institutions, financial development, and inclusive growth nexus are scarce and contradictory owing to weak institutions and inappropriateness of GDP as a measure of inclusive growth. This study, therefore, investigates the interrelationship among financial sector development, institutions, and inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2020. The data were analyzed using Vector Error Correction Model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag approaches with the inference drawn at a 5% level of significance. The result showed that the composite index of financial development had a significant positive and negative effect on inclusive growth in the short-run and long run, respectively in Nigeria. The negative influence of financial development on inclusive growth resulted from low domestic credit to private sector, insufficient money supply and high lending rate spread. Furthermore, the result showed that the minimum domestic credit to the private sector to GDP would stimulate inclusive growth at 18.22% and 13.49% in the short-run and long run respectively. Concerning money supply to GDP, it would stimulate inclusive growth at 17.84% in the long run. As to financial development index, it exhibits a maximum threshold of 0.697 that maintain inclusive growth in the long run. Institution negatively impact inclusive growth in the short run but positively influenced growth inclusiveness in the long run. The interaction of financial development and institutions had negative and insignificant impact on inclusive growth in short-run and long-run. This study concludes that lack of financial access and weak institutions hampered inclusive growth in Nigeria. As part of the inclusive growth process, the government must ensure credit facilitation, low credit rates, money availability, bureaucracy quality, political stability, and law and order. Keywords: Domestic credit, money supply, lending rate, institutions, financial development index, inclusive growth, threshold effects. Word Counts: 298
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    Effect of Oil Exploration and Production on Economic Activities of Host Niger Delta Communities in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Oluwalogbonu Monday OJULARI
    Abstract The effects of oil and gas production on the economy, society, and environment continue to be a contentious topic among oil-producing states, oil firms, and governments in developing nations like Nigeria. Thus, this study examines the effects of oil exploration and production on economic activities of Host Niger-Delta communities in Nigeria. The study employed a survey research design and a multi-stage sampling technique to select a sample of 400 from the entire population. Percentile ranking and multilevel mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression were employed to achieve the objectives. The study discovered that there is high level of oil and gas activities in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Further, these oil and gas activities come more from oil exploration than oil production. Another finding is that there is high level of occupational changes caused by oil and gas activities in the region. It implies that people in the region changed their jobs on the basis of oil and gas activities which have created environmental challenges to the residents. This is more in the urban areas than rural areas, and among secondary and tertiary school certificate holders that other certificate holders. The logistic regression result showed that growth opportunity, environmental changes, environmental changes and socio-cultural changes have positive and significant on occupational mobility. Finally, the study showed that economic, socio-cultural and environmental factors of oil and gas activities have adverse impact on the development of the host communities. Thus, this apparently indicated that oil and gas exploration has a great impact on the host community which indirectly influences the occupational selection of the host community. The study recommends that the government and oil-producing companies should expedite the cleanup of regions that have been contaminated as a result of oil spills and gas flare-ups to reduce the occupational effect of oil and gas exploration and production on the host communities in Nigeria. Keywords: Occupational mobility, oil and gas exploration, production, host communities, environmental conditions Word counts: 298
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    Oil Price and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Olufunke Chioma OGIOGWA
    Crude oil is one of the most important sources of energy in the world and it has a vital impact on the development in economy and the growth of these various economies. Crude oil price has witnessed intricate shocks, and this implies that for the performance of most of the macroeconomic variables, it poses many challenges, both monetary and fiscal) for making policies. Oil price fluctuations have macroeconomic outcomes in both oil importing and exporting nations, given that crude oil which is an integral source of income and contributes significantly to the economic wealth of countries. The scope of this study covers the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to year 2020. This is so because this period witnessed different episodes of oil price changes. Time series data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the world development index (WDI). The Neoclassical growth theory, which posits that the economic growth stability hinges on three major factors, which are the availability of Capital, availability of Labour and the availability and State of Technology was used. In analyzing the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model framework is employed. The ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal, irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I (1) or I (0), and also works well with small samples. Keywords: Crude Oil, Potential Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Neoclassical growth theory Word count: 250 words
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    Industrial Sector Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Adesoji Ebeneser OLOGBENLA
    The predictive power of the industrial sub-sector output on economic growth is a topical issue, especially with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on global industrial and economic activities. As such, this research study investigates the links between industrial sector performance (proxy by mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, stream and air conditioner, water supply, sewage and waste management, and construction sector) and economic growth measured by real income per capita growth in Nigeria. A secondary dataset from 1981 to 2021 which was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators was used in the study. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to investigate the short run and long run estimates. The study discovered that manufacturing sector performance significantly and positively impacted economic growth measured by income per capita both in short and long run. Similarly, mining and quarrying sector performance positively impacted economic growth in the short and long run. Also, the performance of electricity, gas, stream and air conditioner sector only influenced income per capita positively in the short run. Meanwhile, construction and water supply, sewage and waste management sector performance adversely affect short run economic growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that manufacturing sector act as the main industrial sector component that drives the per capita output growth of Nigeria compared to other sub-sectors. Thus, it is imperative to harmonize industrial policies with adequate infrastructural development to drive the industrial sub-sector towards enhancing economic growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Industrial output, manufacturing, economic growth. Word counts: 249.
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    Effect of Exchange Rate on Inflation in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Olamilekan Olanrewaju, OLAOSEBIKAN
    This study was conducted to examine the effect of exchange rate on inflation in Nigeria. This was carried out as a result of the contradicting views on the influence of exchange rate on inflation rate in Nigeria. The study utilized secondary data from 1981 - 2020 and performed Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root tests to determine the stationarity of the variables used. TheGranger Causality Test and ARDL model were used as the method of analysis. The results of the unit root tests indicate that the variables were all stationary at the first level of difference, except for the GDP growth series which was originally stationary.The Granger causality tests revealed that, there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. In addition, the result of the ARDL showed that there is co-integration relationship between official exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. It was further found that the causal effects of other major macroeconomic variables on inflation in Nigeria revealed that there is no granger causality relationship between GDP growth and inflation, likewise between unemployment rate and inflation. Based on the empirical evidence of the study, it can be concluded that the official exchange rate could not impact any significant influence on inflation rate, even though there is causality because the official exchange rate behaves differently from the real exchange rate and the parallel price.In view of the realities of casual relationship between the official exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria, it is recommended that the government should create an environment that encourage investmentby putting in placegood infrastructures, security which willboost the nation's productivity and reduce capital flight. Keywords:Inflation, Exchange Rate, Unemployment Rate, Economic Growth Word Count: 280
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    Population Growth and Unemployment Nexus in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Mojere Adegbite, VALK-KENNETH
    This study investigated the nature and extent of the relationship between the population growth and unemployment level in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. The specific objectives of the study were to investigate the causal relationship between the growth in population and unemployment in Nigeria; and to analyze the response of Unemployment to shocks in population growth in Nigeria. This was motivated by the high rate of unemployment level in Nigeria because the optimal proportion of the country's labour force can not be absorbed by the prevailing economic condition of the country. To be able to address this problem, a thorough understanding of the dynamic and interplay between population and unemployment is highly required. Time series data for the analysis were sourced from world development index (WDI). The data were subjected to preliminary analysis which include the trends, descriptive statistics and correlation analysis of the variables for empirical analysis and the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test. The two objectives were examined using Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test, because the variables included were observed to be a mixture of I(0) and I(1), the impulse response (IR) and the variance decomposition analysis (VDA). The result of revealed that there was no direct causality between population growth and unemployment rate in Nigeria. However it can cause unemployment through output growth. It was further discovered that, shocks in unemployment account for most of the variations in itself in he short run while in the long run, population growth and other variables combined are the major contributor to the variations in unemployment rate in Nigeria. It was concluded that population growth have significant impact in the long run. Based on this, it was recommended that concerted effort should be made by the government, individuals and agencies to check and stabilize population growth and provide infrastructural facilities including education and channel the growing population into productive sectors of the economy in order to enable them to make meaningful contribution to the economic growth and development of the country. Keywords: Population growth , Unemployment rate, Dependency ratio. Word Count: 299
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    Monetary Policy, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Kayode Olusegun FADARE
    This study examined the effect of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth and ascertained the monetary policy threshold of growth-inflation relationship. This is as a result of the alarming rate of inflation having devastating effects on Nigerian and the failure of policy efforts to curb it. To achieve the objectives, secondary quarterly data from 2009 to 2020 were sourced from CBN and subjected to econometric analysis using the ARDL estimation technique. It was found that only MPR was found to have significant impact on inflation in both the long run and short run, while other variables (LR, INT, GMS, EXR, YG) only have significant relationship in the short run. Also, LR, INT and GMS was found to have a significant impact on economic growth in both the long run and short run. Other variables are only found to be significant in the short run. The interaction of monetary policy (MPR) and inflation on economic growth was found to be negative and significant in the long run be positive and significant in the short run. However, the net effect for both the log and short run were positive. The monetary policy threshold at which inflation can be controlled and growth sustained was found to be 11.36 percent in the short run and 15.20 percent in the long run. The conclusion is that MPR, LR and INT are most effective policy tools in influencing inflation and economic growth in both the long run and short run. It was recommended that the monetary policy authority should increase the use of MPR, INT, and LR as tools in combating inflation and enhancing growth and that the CBN should ensure that the monetary policy rate is between 11.36 and 15.20 percent in order to produce a controlling effect on inflation and sustainable growth. Keywords: Inflation, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Monetary Policy Threshold. Word Count: 299