Dept of Economics

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    Determinants of Sectoral Capital Inflows in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Bamanosi Praise OKUNOLA
    Capital flows is a well debated issue in international economic. From the monumental paper of Lucas on “why does capital not flow into poor countries”. These endogenous and exogenous factors that affect capital flows are summarily referred to as push and pull factors. Earlier literature have investigated the type of capital flow and its dynamics, while others have investigated country specific variables that affect capital flows. With newer trend in research, certain sectors such as the manufacturing, banking and mining sectors have been investigated upon to determine what factors really affect capital flows. However, the results have shown that push and pull factors alike affect capital flows. Nevertheless, in the course for this study it was found that a critical endogenous variable, that is, the sectoral performances have not been considered during analysis of existing literature. The main objective of the study is to assess the pattern and determinants of capital inflows to Nigeria based on sectoral analysis. While the specific objectives are to analyze the pattern of capital inflows across sectors in Nigeria, explain how sectoral performance led to capital inflows to the sectors, and to examine the pull and push factors that determine capital inflow across sectors in Nigeria. The technique of estimation employed was the ARDL model and relevant preliminary tests. The finding suggests that sectoral performance is critical in attracting capital flows into sectors of the economy. However, this result does not hold for all sectors. More research needs to be done to augment findings; the researcher recommends a panel study of countries within economic blocs and also suggests that the various capital flows type is investigated to solidify the viability of sectoral performance as a variable that should be added into the analysis as regards capital inflows. Keywords: Capital flows, capital inflows, and sectoral performance JEL: B22, C32, C53, F33, G28
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    Economic Openness and Growth of Sectoral Output in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Idowu Sulaiman ABDULSALAM
    The study examines the relationship among economic openness, agriculture, industry, finance and service sectors in Nigeria covering the period 1985 to 2019. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Toda and Yamamoto causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration test, impulse response functions and error correction mechanism. The study found that the data for some variables were fixed at level while others were integrated at first differentiation. Findings from the study reveals that causal relationship exist only between service sector and trade openness. Furthermore, the study describes a long-term relationship between economic openness and sectoral output growth in Nigeria. However, there were mixed results in the short run, from the impulse response pictures, it shown that most of the variables fluctuated along the periods. The study therefore recommended that government should diversify Nigeria economy away from oil, provision of sophisticated farm tools and infrastructural facilities, formulation and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies among others. Keywords: Economic Openness, Economic Growth, Sectoral Output, Nigeria
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    Economic Performance and Life Expectancy in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Adebayo John JULIUS
    This study investigated the relationship between economic performance and average life expectancy (LEXP), male life expectancy (LEXPM), and female life expectancy (LEXPF) in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. The economic performance indicators adopted for this research include income per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, external debt, foreign exchange rate, and government health expenditure. The relationship between economic performance indicators (EPIs) and life expectancy in Nigeria was studied based on neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and the co-integration technique (ARDL Bound test). The response of life expectancy to shocks in EPIs was examined using impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, The short-run causal link between EPIs and life expectancy was examined using Granger causality based on TYDL procedure and VECM while the long-run causality was based on TYDL procedure and VAR. The test result revealed a co-integration of all the variables at the first difference I(1) except inflation rate I(0). The error correction term (ECT) implied that the short-run models of LEXP, LEXPM, LEXPF respectively adjusted their disequilibrium by 31.85%, 34.68%, and 29.0% speed of adjustment to return to the long-run equilibrium. The response of life expectancy to a Cholesky one standard deviation shock exerted on each EPI translated into a different form of reaction. A uni-causality was revealed in the short-run between the EPIs and life expectancy but in the long-run, there was feedback from life expectancy to external debt and inflation rate. The Government was advised to reduce external debts and cultivate the culture of using the borrowed funds for its cause. Also, the stability of EPIs should be prioritized, and a true development plan should be introduced at all levels of government for inclusive growth and long life expectancy in Nigeria. Keywords: Economic performance indicators, Life expectancy, Relationship, Shocks, Causality, Nigeria Word Count: 289
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    Economic Performance and Life Expectancy in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Adebayo John JULIUS
    This study investigated the relationship between economic performance and average life expectancy (LEXP), male life expectancy (LEXPM), and female life expectancy (LEXPF) in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020. The economic performance indicators adopted for this research include income per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, external debt, foreign exchange rate, and government health expenditure. The relationship between economic performance indicators (EPIs) and life expectancy in Nigeria was studied based on neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and the co-integration technique (ARDL Bound test). The response of life expectancy to shocks in EPIs was examined using impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, The short-run causal link between EPIs and life expectancy was examined using Granger causality based on TYDL procedure and VECM while the long-run causality was based on TYDL procedure and VAR. The test result revealed a co-integration of all the variables at the first difference I(1) except inflation rate I(0). The error correction term (ECT) implied that the short-run models of LEXP, LEXPM, LEXPF respectively adjusted their disequilibrium by 31.85%, 34.68%, and 29.0% speed of adjustment to return to the long-run equilibrium. The response of life expectancy to a Cholesky one standard deviation shock exerted on each EPI translated into a different form of reaction. A uni-causality was revealed in the short-run between the EPIs and life expectancy but in the long-run, there was feedback from life expectancy to external debt and inflation rate. The Government was advised to reduce external debts and cultivate the culture of using the borrowed funds for its cause. Also, the stability of EPIs should be prioritized, and a true development plan should be introduced at all levels of government for inclusive growth and long life expectancy in Nigeria. Keywords: Economic performance indicators, Life expectancy, Relationship, Shocks, Causality, Nigeria Word Count: 289
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    Economic Policies and Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Glory Funmilayo AKINNOLA
    The study empirically investigated the link among economic policies and poverty alleviation in Nigeria. A choice of variables such as government expenditure on health, government expenditure on education and tax rate were adopted as fiscal policy tools while monetary policy rate and interest rate were chosen as monetary policy proxy. Exchange rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate and GDP per capita were also incorporated as control variables. The ARDL short- run and long-run models were estimated to investigate the dynamic relationships between poverty rate, and the array of independent variables, fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria from 1980 to 2021. Data used was sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI) and analyzed using the EViews software. The augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test indicated that some of the variables are stationary and others differenced stationary. The result of the ARDL model estimation revealed that government expenditure on health showed a significant positive coefficient, while government expenditure on education reflected otherwise. Tax rate showed a significant negative effect on the poverty rate. Monetary policy rate has relatively small and statistically insignificant coefficients. Inflation rate impacted poverty negatively. The mixed policy estimation result revealed that a mix of (government expenditure on health and monetary policy rate; tax rate and interest rate) indicated a negative significant relationship with poverty level. While combinations of (government expenditure on education and the monetary policy rate; tax rate and the monetary policy), revealed a positive relationship with poverty. Based on the results, poverty increase in Nigeria is still henpecked by monetary policy, because of inflation instability. Fiscal policy has contributed to poverty rate decrease but not effectively as government budget seem to miss the target. Thus, this study recommends proper monitoring of economic policies channelled towards poverty alleviation in Nigeria. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Poverty Alleviation, Nigeria. Word Count: 295
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    Effect of Exchange Rate on Inflation in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Olamilekan Olanrewaju, OLAOSEBIKAN
    This study was conducted to examine the effect of exchange rate on inflation in Nigeria. This was carried out as a result of the contradicting views on the influence of exchange rate on inflation rate in Nigeria. The study utilized secondary data from 1981 - 2020 and performed Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root tests to determine the stationarity of the variables used. TheGranger Causality Test and ARDL model were used as the method of analysis. The results of the unit root tests indicate that the variables were all stationary at the first level of difference, except for the GDP growth series which was originally stationary.The Granger causality tests revealed that, there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. In addition, the result of the ARDL showed that there is co-integration relationship between official exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. It was further found that the causal effects of other major macroeconomic variables on inflation in Nigeria revealed that there is no granger causality relationship between GDP growth and inflation, likewise between unemployment rate and inflation. Based on the empirical evidence of the study, it can be concluded that the official exchange rate could not impact any significant influence on inflation rate, even though there is causality because the official exchange rate behaves differently from the real exchange rate and the parallel price.In view of the realities of casual relationship between the official exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria, it is recommended that the government should create an environment that encourage investmentby putting in placegood infrastructures, security which willboost the nation's productivity and reduce capital flight. Keywords:Inflation, Exchange Rate, Unemployment Rate, Economic Growth Word Count: 280
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    Effect of Oil Exploration and Production on Economic Activities of Host Niger Delta Communities in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Oluwalogbonu Monday OJULARI
    Abstract The effects of oil and gas production on the economy, society, and environment continue to be a contentious topic among oil-producing states, oil firms, and governments in developing nations like Nigeria. Thus, this study examines the effects of oil exploration and production on economic activities of Host Niger-Delta communities in Nigeria. The study employed a survey research design and a multi-stage sampling technique to select a sample of 400 from the entire population. Percentile ranking and multilevel mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression were employed to achieve the objectives. The study discovered that there is high level of oil and gas activities in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Further, these oil and gas activities come more from oil exploration than oil production. Another finding is that there is high level of occupational changes caused by oil and gas activities in the region. It implies that people in the region changed their jobs on the basis of oil and gas activities which have created environmental challenges to the residents. This is more in the urban areas than rural areas, and among secondary and tertiary school certificate holders that other certificate holders. The logistic regression result showed that growth opportunity, environmental changes, environmental changes and socio-cultural changes have positive and significant on occupational mobility. Finally, the study showed that economic, socio-cultural and environmental factors of oil and gas activities have adverse impact on the development of the host communities. Thus, this apparently indicated that oil and gas exploration has a great impact on the host community which indirectly influences the occupational selection of the host community. The study recommends that the government and oil-producing companies should expedite the cleanup of regions that have been contaminated as a result of oil spills and gas flare-ups to reduce the occupational effect of oil and gas exploration and production on the host communities in Nigeria. Keywords: Occupational mobility, oil and gas exploration, production, host communities, environmental conditions Word counts: 298
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    Financial Deepening and Economic Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Omobolanle Rachael ANIH
    This research study investigates on the interrelationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria within the periods of 1985-2020. Specifically, it investigates the effect of financial depth on economic performance in Nigeria; determine the direction of causality between financial depth and economic performance in Nigeria; and examine the response of economic performance to shocks in financial depth in Nigeria. Economic performance is measured by gross domestic product, while financial development is proxied by domestic credit to private sector by bank, money supply, liquid liabilities, and bank deposits. The augmented Dickey Fuller test showed that the variables are stationary at both levels and first difference. The estimation techniques are autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition tests. The ARDL estimation output showed that financial depth has a significant effect on economic performance in Nigeria. As to the causality test, it showed that there is bi-directional causality between financial depth and economic performance. Also, economic performance responds to shocks in financial depth in Nigeria. Based on the finding from the study, monetary authority should look into how to combine money supply, bank deposits and liquid liabilities for effective economic performance. Furthermore, it is suggested that banks can help economic performance in Nigeria by developing instruments to increase bank deposits. Thus, monetary authority should encourage money deposit banks to increase the credit given for investment so as to increase economic performance. Keywords: Domestic credit, money supply, liquid liabilities, bank deposits, output growth. Word Counts: 233.
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    Financial Sector Development and Health Outcomes in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Ibrahim SAMAILA
    One major problem arising from the relationship of financial sector development and health outcomes in the Nigerian economy is the lack of comprehensive understanding of how specific financial instruments and institutions influence various health indicators like life expectancy and child mortality. Existing studies often focus on aggregate measures, and there is a need for more in-depth investigations that consider the diverse pathways through which financial sector dynamics such as money, bank and stock markets influence specific health outcomes.This study investigates the effects of money market instruments (monetary policy rate, 12-month deposit rate and treasury bill rate), bank sector (liquidity ratio, loan to deposit ratio and domestic credit), and stock market indices (market capitalization, market stock traded and all share index) on health outcome in Nigeria over the period 1985-2022. Using the ARDL bound testing approach, monetary policy rate and 12-month deposit rate have negative impact on short-run life expectancy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, life expectancy reacted positively to monetary policy rate but negatively affected by treasury bill rate in the long run. Treasury bill rate and 12-month deposit rate positively relate with child mortality rate in the short run.It discovers that liquidity ratio positively influences life expectancy both in the short and long run. The study found that under-5 mortality is positively and significantly influenced by bank sector development measures in the short run. Only liquidity ratio and domestic credit are negatively significant on long-run child mortality.In addition, total stocks transaction value influences life expectancy positively in the short run but negatively in the long run. Also, all share index directly influence life expectancy both in the short and long run. Stock market capitalization negatively influence child mortality both in the short and long run. However, total stock transaction value positively relates to under-5 mortality in the short and long run. All share index has a direct influence on child mortality rate in the short run.There is a need for the policymakers and government agencies to carefully consider the potential health implications when implementing measures that increase interest rates. Also, they should balance the long-term economic goals with the potential health consequences. Keywords: Money market, banking sector, stock market, life expectancy, child mortality. Word Count: 288.
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    Financial Sector Development and Health Outcomes in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) SAMAILA, Ibrahim
    One major problem arising from the relationship of financial sector development and health outcomes in the Nigerian economy is the lack of comprehensive understanding of how specific financial instruments and institutions influence various health indicators like life expectancy and child mortality.Existing studies often focus on aggregate measures, and there is a need for more in-depth investigations that consider the diverse pathways through which financial sector dynamics such as money, bank and stock markets influence specific health outcomes.This study investigates the effects of money market instruments (monetary policy rate, 12-month deposit rate and treasury bill rate), bank sector (liquidity ratio, loan to deposit ratio and domestic credit), and stock market indices (market capitalization, market stock traded and all share index) on health outcome in Nigeria over the period 1985-2022. Using the ARDL bound testing approach, monetary policy rate and 12-month deposit rate have negative impact on short-run life expectancy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, life expectancy reacted positively to monetary policy rate but negatively affected by treasury bill rate in the long run. Treasury bill rate and 12-month deposit rate positively relate with child mortality rate in the short run. It discovers that liquidity ratio positively influences life expectancy both in the short and long run. The study found that under-5 mortality is positively and significantly influenced by bank sector development measures in the short run. Only liquidity ratio and domestic credit are negatively significant on long-run child mortality. In addition, total stocks transaction value influences life expectancy positively in the short run but negatively in the long run. Also, all share index directly influence life expectancy both in the short and long run. Stock market capitalization negatively influence child mortality both in the short and long run. However, total stock transaction value positively relates to under-5 mortality in the short and long run. All share index has a direct influence on child mortality rate in the short run. There is a need for the policymakers and government agencies to carefully consider the potential health implications when implementing measures that increase interest rates. Also, they should balance the long-term economic goals with the potential health consequences. Keywords: Money market, banking sector, stock market, life expectancy, child mortality. Word Count: 288
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    Globalization, Environmental Sustainability, and Income Inequality in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Bonuola Victoria OYEKU
    Over the last years, development economists, policymakers and stakeholders have focused on the macroeconomic effects of economic inequality and poor environmental sustainability in the developing economies. Despite globalization and environment degradation being recognized as factors of income inequality, studies on ECOWAS’s globalization, environmental sustainability and inequality are scarce and contradictory due to inappropriateness of carbon emissions and trade openness as indicators of environmental sustainability and globalization respectively. This study investigates the interrelationship among globalization, environmental sustainability, and income inequality in ECOWAS within the periods 1996-2019. The panel data set was sourced from the databank of World Bank and ICRG. The study found that globalization contributed to poor environmental sustainability in the region. It is consistent with the Pollution Haven hypothesis, which contends that globalization harms the environment, particularly in developing countries with lax environmental policies in comparison to developed countries with strict environmental policies. It was further discovered that income inequality is positively influenced by financial globalization but negatively affected by trade openness and KOF globalization index. This implies that the type of foreign direct investment coming into the region further exacerbated the disparity in income distribution. Thus, owing to the region’s inadequate capital stock and abundant labor force, multinationals' capital-intensive projects are unlikely to support many of the labor-intensive industries in terms of job creation and growth sustainability. Furthermore, income inequality is negatively influenced by poor environmental sustainability. It implies that growth inclusiveness and low level of pollutants move in the same direction with income inequality. Thus, environmental sustainability failed to curtail economic inequality. The study confirmed that globalization and environmental sustainability influenced income inequality more in the long-run than in the short-run. It is recommended that the government should enact environmental laws and regulations that abate pollution and carbon-trading activities, as well as to encourage the use of green manufacturing techniques. Keywords: Trade, FDI, KOF globalization index, inequality, Gini coefficient, ECOWAS Word count: 293
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    Government Expenditure, Institutional Quality and Health Outcomes in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Abdulkareem Abiodun Adekunle ODUGBEMI
    Deteriorating health outcome in the face of high public health expenditure and weak institutional settings in Nigeria over the decades has prompted the need to work on the interrelationship among public health expenditure, institutions and health outcomes (measured by life expectancy and infant mortality) in Nigeria. The scope of the study covered a period of thirty seven years, 1984-2020. The objectives were formulated and evaluated using appropriate statistical methods ranging from charts, descriptive statistics, unit root, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimator. The study found that government health expenditure negatively and significantly influenced life expectancy in the short run. However, the positive impact of public health spending on life expectancy in the long run is significant at 5% level. It shows that increasing government health spending increases life expectancy. This direct relationship, however, emphasizes the importance of improving value for money in health-care systems. It includes a greater emphasis on health promotion and other low-cost interventions, as well as a reduction in ineffective spending and waste. Also, institutions negatively influenced life expectancy both in short run and long run. It means that weak institutional settings do not have the impetus to improve life expectance and curtail infant mortality. Finally, institutions do not have the impetus to drive government health expenditure towards influencing health outcomes positively. Thus, the effectiveness of health and the way to reduce infant mortality or improve life quality is conditioned by the status of good institutions. The study suggests the need for government to increases its expenditure on healthcare services and facilities so as to improve the health of the country’s population. Further, proper governance and institutional handling must be maintained to ensure appropriate and efficient use of public sector health funds to improve health outcomes. Keywords: Public health spending, governance, life expectancy, infant mortality, Nigeria. Word Count: 288
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    Healthcare Expenditure, Health Outcomes and Economic Growth in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Funmilola Victoria ONIYIDE
    In spite of the funds allocated into healthcare system, expenditure on health is still the lowest in the world both as per capita and as percentage of GDP, there are still high out-of-pocket costs incurred by the citizens and nation’s still face a number of development challenges, including poor infrastructure, a high mortality rate. The study empirically investigated the link among healthcare expenditures, health outcomes and economic growth in a panel of 15 countries of ECOWAS within the periods, 2000-2020. The study decomposes healthcare expenditures into four components: national, public, private and external; health outcomes into life expectancy, infant mortality, maternal mortality and under-five mortality; while economic growth is measured by gross domestic product per capita. The parameters are estimated using the pooled mean group (PMG) and granger causality estimators. Based on the pooled mean group results, it was discovered that healthcare expenditure is an important predictor of life expectancy. Thus, healthcare expenditure positively and significantly influences life expectancy in ECOWAS. On the contrary, healthcare expenditures have a negative impact on infant mortality. Meanwhile, the effect of healthcare expenditure on maternal mortality rate and under-five mortality rates is statistically significant, albeit has mixed signs. It was further discovered that healthcare expenditure positively and significantly impacted economic growth. As regards the causality test, income per capita has a bi-causal link with national, private and external healthcare expenditure, while a one-way causal link was found from public healthcare expenditure to per capita income. Also, a uni-directional link exists between healthcare expenditures and life expectancy. Equally, there exist a one-way causation from health outcomes to income per capita. The study recommends that government should increase budget allocation into health sectors as presented during Abuja declaration in April 2001, so as to achieve better health outcomes and sustainable economic growth. Keywords: Healthcare Expenditures, Health Outcomes, Pooled Mean Group, Granger Causality, ECOWAS Word Count: 296
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    Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Emmanuel Abiodun, ADEKUNLE
    Over the last years, access to cheap and affordable credit for the purchase of land and necessary machinery towards the development of farm produce, services, production technologies and marketing strategies have been one of the major challenges facing many farmers in the developing countries like Nigeria. Yet, deposit money banks are often reluctant to lend money to farmers for agricultural enterprises, development and expansion due to the lack of credit facilities and collateral. As a result, this study investigates the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on agricultural performance for the periods of 1981-2021. The non-linear ARDL estimator showed that low monetary policy rate ensures a greater performance in the agriculture sector in the long run. A positive change in monetary policy rate and lending rate influences short run agricultural performance. Also, a high liquidity ratio significantly influences short run agricultural output, whereas its long run impact was not significant. This means that financial bank solvency affects their ability to provide financial assistance which ultimately influenced short run agricultural output. Further, for both positive and negative changes in deposit money bank credit to agriculture, they have a negative influence on short run agricultural performance. According to the study's shocks analysis, agricultural performance responds to 44.35%, 32.64%, 18.78%, and 4.32% of total shocks in monetary policy rate, liquidity ratio, lending interest rate, and deposit money bank credit to agriculture from 23.79% of monetary policy shocks. The study recommends an expansionary but non-inflationary monetary policy to improve value addition to the agricultural sector of the Nigerian economy. This should be performed by ensuring low and affordable lending interest rates for farmers employed in tandem with government spending in the agricultural sector as an effective way of improving its performance. Keywords: Monetary policy rate, lending rate, financial credit, liquidity, agriculture output, asymmetric analysis, Nigeria Word Counts: 286
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    Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022) Emmanuel Abiodun, ADEKUNLE
    Over the last years, access to cheap and affordable credit for the purchase of land and necessary machinery towards the development of farm produce, services, production technologies and marketing strategies have been one of the major challenges facing many farmers in the developing countries like Nigeria. Yet, deposit money banks are often reluctant to lend money to farmers for agricultural enterprises, development and expansion due to the lack of credit facilities and collateral. As a result, this study investigates the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on agricultural performance for the periods of 1981-2021. The non-linear ARDL estimator showed that low monetary policy rate ensures a greater performance in the agriculture sector in the long run. A positive change in monetary policy rate and lending rate influences short run agricultural performance. Also, a high liquidity ratio significantly influences short run agricultural output, whereas its long run impact was not significant. This means that financial bank solvency affects their ability to provide financial assistance which ultimately influenced short run agricultural output. Further, for both positive and negative changes in deposit money bank credit to agriculture, they have a negative influence on short run agricultural performance. According to the study's shocks analysis, agricultural performance responds to 44.35%, 32.64%, 18.78%, and 4.32% of total shocks in monetary policy rate, liquidity ratio, lending interest rate, and deposit money bank credit to agriculture from 23.79% of monetary policy shocks. The study recommends an expansionary but non-inflationary monetary policy to improve value addition to the agricultural sector of the Nigerian economy. This should be performed by ensuring low and affordable lending interest rates for farmers employed in tandem with government spending in the agricultural sector as an effective way of improving its performance. Keywords: Monetary policy rate, lending rate, financial credit, liquidity, agriculture output, asymmetric analysis, Nigeria Word Counts: 286
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    Industrial Sector Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Adesoji Ebeneser OLOGBENLA
    The predictive power of the industrial sub-sector output on economic growth is a topical issue, especially with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on global industrial and economic activities. As such, this research study investigates the links between industrial sector performance (proxy by mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, stream and air conditioner, water supply, sewage and waste management, and construction sector) and economic growth measured by real income per capita growth in Nigeria. A secondary dataset from 1981 to 2021 which was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators was used in the study. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to investigate the short run and long run estimates. The study discovered that manufacturing sector performance significantly and positively impacted economic growth measured by income per capita both in short and long run. Similarly, mining and quarrying sector performance positively impacted economic growth in the short and long run. Also, the performance of electricity, gas, stream and air conditioner sector only influenced income per capita positively in the short run. Meanwhile, construction and water supply, sewage and waste management sector performance adversely affect short run economic growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that manufacturing sector act as the main industrial sector component that drives the per capita output growth of Nigeria compared to other sub-sectors. Thus, it is imperative to harmonize industrial policies with adequate infrastructural development to drive the industrial sub-sector towards enhancing economic growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Industrial output, manufacturing, economic growth. Word counts: 249.
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    Institutional Quality, Financial Development and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Oluwatosin Yewande BARUWA
    Over the last decade, policymakers and economists have focused on the macroeconomic effects of financial development and institutional quality. Despite financial development being recognized as a growth stimulant, studies on Nigeria’s institutions, financial development, and inclusive growth nexus are scarce and contradictory owing to weak institutions and inappropriateness of GDP as a measure of inclusive growth. This study, therefore, investigates the interrelationship among financial sector development, institutions, and inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2020. The data were analyzed using Vector Error Correction Model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag approaches with the inference drawn at a 5% level of significance. The result showed that the composite index of financial development had a significant positive and negative effect on inclusive growth in the short-run and long run, respectively in Nigeria. The negative influence of financial development on inclusive growth resulted from low domestic credit to private sector, insufficient money supply and high lending rate spread. Furthermore, the result showed that the minimum domestic credit to the private sector to GDP would stimulate inclusive growth at 18.22% and 13.49% in the short-run and long run respectively. Concerning money supply to GDP, it would stimulate inclusive growth at 17.84% in the long run. As to financial development index, it exhibits a maximum threshold of 0.697 that maintain inclusive growth in the long run. Institution negatively impact inclusive growth in the short run but positively influenced growth inclusiveness in the long run. The interaction of financial development and institutions had negative and insignificant impact on inclusive growth in short-run and long-run. This study concludes that lack of financial access and weak institutions hampered inclusive growth in Nigeria. As part of the inclusive growth process, the government must ensure credit facilitation, low credit rates, money availability, bureaucracy quality, political stability, and law and order. Keywords: Domestic credit, money supply, lending rate, institutions, financial development index, inclusive growth, threshold effects. Word Counts: 298
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    Institutional Quality, Globalization, and Income Inequality in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2023-12) Tolani Akintunde FAKUNLE
    Globalization can exacerbate income inequality, as those who can harness global opportunities benefit more than others. The unequal distribution of benefits from globalization can widen the gap between the rich and poor in Nigeria. Also, weak and ineffective institutions in Nigeria pose a significant challenge to addressing income inequality. Therefore, this research examines the interrelationship among globalization, institutions, and income inequality in Nigeria over the period 1985-2020. It investigates the role of institutions on globalization; the effect of globalization on income inequality; the extent to which institutions influence income inequality; and the moderating role of institutions in globalization-income inequality relations in Nigeria. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimator, the findings showed that institutions do not have significant impact on globalization both in the short- and long-run. The result further indicates that institutions positively impacted income inequality both in the short and long run. Likewise, it showed that globalization have a direct effect on income inequality both in the short and long run. It implies that globalization and weak institutional quality exacerbate income inequality in Nigeria by concentrating economic benefits among a privileged few. In the short run, the study discovered that globalization and institutions have a positive marginal effect on income inequality in Nigeria. Intuitively, inadequate governance, corruption, and lack of regulatory mechanisms allow a disproportionate share of the gains from globalization to accrue to powerful interests, widening the income gap and hindering inclusive economic development. On the policy front, government should prioritize institution-building initiatives, focusing on strengthening governance, reducing corruption, and enhancing regulatory frameworks to ensure that the benefits of globalization are equitably shared across society. Keywords: Redistribution, KOF globalization index, governance, Gini index, Nigeria. Word Count: 260
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    Monetary Policy, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Kayode Olusegun FADARE
    This study examined the effect of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth and ascertained the monetary policy threshold of growth-inflation relationship. This is as a result of the alarming rate of inflation having devastating effects on Nigerian and the failure of policy efforts to curb it. To achieve the objectives, secondary quarterly data from 2009 to 2020 were sourced from CBN and subjected to econometric analysis using the ARDL estimation technique. It was found that only MPR was found to have significant impact on inflation in both the long run and short run, while other variables (LR, INT, GMS, EXR, YG) only have significant relationship in the short run. Also, LR, INT and GMS was found to have a significant impact on economic growth in both the long run and short run. Other variables are only found to be significant in the short run. The interaction of monetary policy (MPR) and inflation on economic growth was found to be negative and significant in the long run be positive and significant in the short run. However, the net effect for both the log and short run were positive. The monetary policy threshold at which inflation can be controlled and growth sustained was found to be 11.36 percent in the short run and 15.20 percent in the long run. The conclusion is that MPR, LR and INT are most effective policy tools in influencing inflation and economic growth in both the long run and short run. It was recommended that the monetary policy authority should increase the use of MPR, INT, and LR as tools in combating inflation and enhancing growth and that the CBN should ensure that the monetary policy rate is between 11.36 and 15.20 percent in order to produce a controlling effect on inflation and sustainable growth. Keywords: Inflation, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Monetary Policy Threshold. Word Count: 299
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    Oil Price and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria
    (Lead City University, 2022-12) Olufunke Chioma OGIOGWA
    Crude oil is one of the most important sources of energy in the world and it has a vital impact on the development in economy and the growth of these various economies. Crude oil price has witnessed intricate shocks, and this implies that for the performance of most of the macroeconomic variables, it poses many challenges, both monetary and fiscal) for making policies. Oil price fluctuations have macroeconomic outcomes in both oil importing and exporting nations, given that crude oil which is an integral source of income and contributes significantly to the economic wealth of countries. The scope of this study covers the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to year 2020. This is so because this period witnessed different episodes of oil price changes. Time series data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the world development index (WDI). The Neoclassical growth theory, which posits that the economic growth stability hinges on three major factors, which are the availability of Capital, availability of Labour and the availability and State of Technology was used. In analyzing the effect of oil price on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model framework is employed. The ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal, irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I (1) or I (0), and also works well with small samples. Keywords: Crude Oil, Potential Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Neoclassical growth theory Word count: 250 words